A number of articles have appeared on blogs over the last few days raising concerns about the outcome of the devolution referendum. They’re blogs that I read quite often, and from people who are not against a yes vote -Inside Out, Valleys Mam, Miserable old Fart and Wales Home andwho are concerned that the Yes campaign is concentrating too much on celebs or rugby and worried that because of this the no campaign may be gaining ground. Is the Yes cmapaing too concerned with celebrity? Has there been a shift in public opnion? Have True Wales made an impact?
From a personal viewpoint, I havent seen any change. On the street in Lampeter and amongst my friends there is a clear majority in favour of full law making powers for the Assembly. I don’ for a minute think that I’ve conducted a reliable poll but I haven’t seen or heard anything to make me doubt the consistent opinion poll results. Yes has been in a clear lead for months and with no campaign to speak of, it may have been easy to forget that around 25% of the Welsh population have always been against further powers. Now, with the campaign underway, those who want a No vote have found their voice and are getting plenty of media coverage. Are the people in pubs we hear of saying they are going to vote No new converts, or are they amongst the 25% who have always been opposed? This isn’t to say that I know there has been no shift in opinion but I’d hope that the leaders of the yes campaign are keeping an eye on any polls that are done to be sure.
The yes campaign can’t take victory for granted – this will be a hard fought campaign and we need to ensure that the yes message gets across clearly – something that may not behappenning yet. The “Laws that affect Wales should be made in Wales” slogan is a good one, but we need to back it up with substance. We have very compelling arguments and shouldn’t let ourselves seem superficial. Having rugby endorsements is great, but we also need to get ordinary people and yes – politicians – in the media spotlight for the Yes campaign. We need to to persuade those undecided voters and motivate our supporters out to vote.
Its important that we keep an eye on what the opposition is up to, and we should challenge their arguments, but we mustn’t get obsessed with them. We’ll win this by making the strong case for full legislative powers in a positive way – not by running around True Wales in circles!
Filed under: Posts in English Tagged: | Devolution referendum, National Assembly for Wae, Yes for Wales
I had read such posts and got a bit worried too, it settled me a little today to see Ladbrokes current odds (Yes: 1/10, No 5/1) but supporters of a Yes vote have to keep pushing until the moment the polls close, otherwise there’s always the possibility of a shock result.
I’m no betting man, but those look like pretty good odds but still no reason to relax. I agree that we need to keep pushing hard (I was our for 2 hours last night with leaflets) to make the case and get the vote out. While some polls show that the lower the turnout the bigger the yes margin as Yes voters are more likely to vote I don’t buy that. The higher the turnout, the better for everyone.